Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-22 22.133268 26.575909 31.469390 37.231271 43.800738 51.028232 59.550570
2025-06-29 16.006350 21.914882 29.084651 38.299802 49.694758 63.184583 80.211501
2025-07-06 11.293832 17.314490 25.238722 36.167066 50.555501 68.546938 92.401806
2025-07-13 9.269928 15.589391 24.465346 37.391238 55.229235 78.442814 110.322286
2025-07-20 7.725686 14.153472 23.729601 38.360797 59.385604 87.682331 127.689163
2025-07-27 6.630134 13.142715 23.376144 39.687305 63.958643 97.569558 146.258220
2025-08-03 5.682701 12.164102 22.881520 40.653716 67.959740 106.759761 164.196619
2025-08-10 4.637677 10.790913 21.534413 40.099819 69.574208 112.556378 177.571660
2025-08-17 3.953630 9.932201 20.895608 40.542779 72.632439 120.477684 194.180329
2025-08-24 3.294264 8.973561 19.931598 40.307663 74.544152 126.718111 208.531195
2025-08-31 2.607963 7.790480 18.374259 38.863657 74.353009 129.702175 218.127261
2025-09-07 2.269228 7.303508 18.058001 39.539535 77.621601 138.061028 235.974233
2025-09-14 1.775627 6.351675 16.756914 38.441918 78.095147 142.494992 248.743209
2025-09-21 1.542217 6.007148 16.671482 39.635242 82.625286 153.659704 272.450151
2025-09-28 1.125999 4.999187 14.956982 37.449091 81.001985 154.750196 280.446982
2025-10-05 0.985848 4.770358 14.969987 38.707835 85.638130 166.297780 305.360373
2025-10-12 0.852409 4.513447 14.868553 39.704351 89.829401 177.252522 329.676323
2025-10-19 0.753343 4.339550 14.941577 41.067482 94.773143 189.660379 356.733068
2025-10-26 0.652994 4.118827 14.853823 42.060413 99.049741 201.071367 382.501142
2025-11-02 0.517296 3.684282 14.108082 41.491332 100.228942 207.124113 399.584584
2025-11-09 0.434087 3.434197 13.826365 41.946439 103.441165 216.848032 423.064250
2025-11-16 0.348125 3.115854 13.278724 41.704879 105.211311 224.043666 442.470046
2025-11-23 0.254929 2.681634 12.273031 40.221126 104.303723 226.333526 453.552420